In watching Western analysts argue over who "won" the recent round of fighting between forces seemingly directed by Moqtada al-Sadr, and forces sort of loyal to Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, I notice the kind-of cease-fire negotiations were what you might call "facilitated" by Iran. According to one Sunni lawmaker involved in mediation efforts (some substance of which appear to have taken place in Qom, Iran, just BTW), they were actually overseen by the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' al-Quds brigade. That's the US-designated terror group that answers directly to the Iranian leadership and that the US specifically accuses of fomenting violence in Iraq against US troops with IEDs and other lethal devices.
Hmmm.
Me, I think Iran is a winner here, given its support of both Maliki and Sadr. Of course, Iran was doing all right even before hostilities broke out. If it's true, though, that Iran's Al Quds' commander is now negotiating political settlements in Iraq, that would represent a new kind of victory for Iran.
Sadr has demanded in exchange for an end to the fighting the release of hundreds of his followers, currently "detained," as they say. by the Maliki government. Maybe a good way to judge the outcome here is to see what happens to them. If they are indeed released, chalk one up for Sadr.